Ceasefire in Gaza: Trump’s action was decisive for the agreement, but is still far from guaranteeing the peace process

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, said that this moment is a “historic dawn of a new Middle East” EPA/Shutterstock American President Donald Trump’s quick trip to Israel and Egypt this Monday (13) was the personal consecration he sought. Anyone who watched the speeches Trump gave in Jerusalem and Sharm el-Sheikh could see a man reveling in his power, enjoying the applause in the Israeli Parliament and in Egypt, enjoying the presence of so many heads of state and government. A veteran diplomat present said it appeared Trump saw world leaders as extras on his own movie set. In Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the message the American president wanted to convey was clear: that he had achieved a historic turnaround. “Everything I’ve done in my life has been business. The biggest deals just happen… That’s what happened here. And maybe this is the best deal of all,” he said. Observers may have gotten the impression from the speeches that the mission was complete. It is not. Trump speaks in Egypt and says he will now begin rebuilding the Gaza Strip. Trump can undoubtedly claim credit for the ceasefire agreement and the hostage exchange. Qatar, Türkiye and Egypt used their influence over Hamas to force the group to accept the agreement. The effort was joint, but Trump’s role was decisive. Without pressure from Trump to demand that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accept terms that he himself had previously rejected, the agreement would not have been signed. This helps you understand what the agreement is about — and what it isn’t. The agreement provides for a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages for prisoners. It is not a peace agreement, or even the beginning of a peace process. The next phase of Trump’s 20-point plan calls for an agreement that completes the envisioned framework, in which the Gaza Strip would be demilitarized, protected and governed by a committee that includes Palestinians. The project will report to a Peace Council chaired by Trump. Detailed and intense work is required for this step to be implemented. The Gaza deal is not a roadmap to Middle East peace — the ultimate destination that seems, at least so far, unattainable. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls Trump the ‘greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House’ REUTERS Furthermore, there is no evidence of a political will from Israel and Hamas to reach a real peace agreement. Most wars end with exhausted belligerents reaching some kind of agreement. The war in Gaza has become one of them, if, as Trump declared, it is indeed over. The other way to end a war is with total victory, which lets the victors dictate the path forward. The best example is the unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945. Before September 9, when Netanyahu ordered a missile attack on Qatar, he seemed still intent on crushing Israel’s enemy so comprehensively that Israel would be able to dictate the future of Gaza. The attack infuriated Trump. Qatar is one of the United States’ main allies in the region and is home to the largest American military base in the Middle East. It’s also a place where Trump’s children have done lucrative business deals. Trump rejected Netanyahu’s justification that the target, which was not hit, was the Hamas leadership, not Qatar. For Trump, US interests come before Israel’s. He is not like former US President Joe Biden, who was willing to accept damage to the US position in the region as the necessary price for supporting Israel. Now Trump is back in the US capital. Diplomats say the Americans know that ironing out the details is vital and that it will not happen quickly. The problem is that they may not have enough time. Ceasefires are always violated in their early stages. Those that survive tend to be based on rigid agreements reached by warring parties who have decided that the best option is to make them work. The danger is that the ceasefire in Gaza does not have these foundations. Cracks are emerging in the ceasefire just 24 hours after Israelis and Palestinians, for very different reasons, shared joy and relief at the return of hostages, prisoners and detainees. So far, Hamas has returned only seven of the bodies of the 28 hostages killed during their imprisonment. The explanation is that it is very difficult to find their graves in the sea of ​​rubble that Israel has created in Gaza. Israel’s patience is running out. The fate of the hostages’ bodies will become an increasing issue in Israel if their remains are not repatriated. As a first response, Israel announced that, as long as Hamas fails to fulfill its obligations, it will reduce the flow of aid to Gaza by half and keep the Rafah crossing, the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt, closed. Bezalel Smotrich, an extremist and ultranationalist Israeli Finance Minister who opposes the Gaza agreement, posted on social media that “only military pressure brings the hostages back.” The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) still occupy 53% of the Gaza Strip. On Tuesday (14), Israeli soldiers killed Palestinians who they said were approaching their forces. Palestinian Civil Defense in Gaza told the BBC that seven people were killed in two incidents. Gaza City has been reduced to rubble REUTERS It may be that the IDF is still following the military guidelines it used before the ceasefire. They order troops to observe two imaginary lines around their positions. If one of them is crossed, they fire warning shots. If Palestinians continue to approach their positions and cross an imaginary second line, IDF troops may shoot to kill. A big problem with this system is that Palestinians don’t know where the lines are. It’s real gunfire crowd control. As for Hamas, it is reasserting its power. His men, armed and masked, are back on the streets of Gaza. The group attacked rival armed clans, some of which were protected by the IDF. Videos are circulating showing Hamas members killing men on their knees and blindfolded, accused of collaborating with the Israelis. The horrific videos of extrajudicial killings in the streets send a message to any Palestinian who wants to challenge them and to the outside world — that Hamas survived Israel’s onslaught. Point 15 of Trump’s Gaza plan states that the US “will work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to be immediately deployed to Gaza.” Assembling and deploying such a force will be impossible if the ceasefire is not solid, as potential collaborating countries will not send their troops to use force to disarm Hamas. Hamas has hinted that it may give up some heavy weapons, but will not be disarmed. The group adopts an ideology of Islamic resistance to Israel and knows that, without weapons, its Palestinian enemies will seek revenge. Netanyahu threatened that if no one else does, Israel will finish the job. Hamas’ weapons must be discarded, he said, “either the easy way or the hard way.” Trump has proclaimed that his Gaza deal, as it stands, will end generations of conflict between Arabs and Jews over the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. He also insists it will lead to broader peace across the Middle East. If he truly believes that the task of pacifying the region is complete, then he is deluding himself. The attempt requires constant focus, hard diplomatic work, and the decision on both sides to make painful sacrifices and concessions. To truly achieve peace, other dreams need to be abandoned. Former American presidents also believed they could promote peace in the Middle East. Trump will discover that peace is not made just because a president, however powerful, decides it will happen.

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