Why are so few F1 Italian GP wins secured from pole?

Pierre Gasly, Daniel Ricciardo, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, winners of the past five grands prix at Monza, have something in common besides the obvious fact of being Formula 1 drivers who have won the Italian GP.

None of them started from pole position.

Indeed, races won from pole are in the minority at Monza, which has hosted a world championship grand prix every year bar one since 1950.

It’s a fool’s errand to apply such a statistical overview over Monza’a entire tenure, though, since the track has gone through several configurations since 1950. Until 1972 there was no chicane on the pitstraight to mitigate speeds into the Curva Grande, so the slipstreaming effect before the first braking area would have been more powerful.

Also, the first chicane quickly established a reputation as an accident blackspot: in 1978 Ronnie Peterson died after a pile-up at the first corner popularly (but incorrectly) blamed on Riccardo Patrese, but actually a consequence of the race being started before the last cars had come to a halt on the grid. It has undergone several changes of configuration since to reduce the bottleneck effect, so the current track configuration has only been in place since 2000.

The distance between the start line and Turn 1 is just over 470m, which is enough to give a small slipstreaming effect. But scrutiny of the competitors has become more sophisticated in recent years so drivers are generally less inclined to take liberties into Turn 1.

Since the new Turn 1 configuration was set in 2000, 14 rounds at Monza have been won from pole but the stretch from 2020 to 2024 is the longest barren period.

Is this a trend, or are those anticipating a disappointing outcome for Verstappen today engaging in the Gambler’s fallacy – the cognitive bias that leads people to over-estimate the likelihood of an event based on the frequency of similar outcomes in the immediate past? Likely the latter.

Even outside the period we’re considering, a number of losses from pole at Monza occurred through unreliability (e.g. Juan Pablo Montoya in 2002) or simply getting a poor start (Lewis Hamilton in 2016).

In 2020, eventual winner Gasly started 10th on the grid and wasn’t in the picture at the beginning of the race, which Hamilton led from pole. Two safety car periods and a red flag then played a part: Gasly pitted at the opportune moment during the first, while Hamilton picked up a penalty for stopping when the pit entry was closed because Kevin Magnussen’s Haas had broken down there.

Gasly gained track position and then led after the restart when Lance Stroll blundered and Hamilton pitted to serve his penalty.

2021 was a sprint weekend so circumstances were skewed slightly by the grid being decided by the outcome of the sprint race. Valtteri Bottas should have started from pole but didn’t, owing to a penalty for taken new power unit components. From second on the grid, Ricciardo made a slightly better start than substitute polesitter Verstappen and got to Turn 1 first.

His cause was then aided by Verstappen and Hamilton, second and third on the opening lap, having a controversial clash later in the race.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, crash out of the race

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

In 2022 Leclerc led the first lap from pole, but Verstappen had a demonstrably quicker car on race pace – he was just slightly out of place on the grid (seventh after a penalty for taking on new power unit components), and cut through the field to be leading on merit when the race ended behind the safety car.

The following year Verstappen also enjoyed a car advantage but he had dipped a wheel into the gravel in Q3 and lined up second on the grid. Carlos Sainz initially led from pole for Ferrari but it was palpably a struggle to keep Verstappen behind; on lap 15 he locked up at Turn 1 and Verstappen seized the moment to get a better exit. From there he simply drove away from the Ferrari.

Last season, of course, Lando Norris qualified on pole and led through Turn 1 but was then mugged by his own team-mate Oscar Piastri later around the lap, a move which enabled Leclerc to make an opportunistic move of his own and seize second. Leclerc then stopped early for hard tyres and gained track position when Piastri pitted.

Different circumstances, then, for all the past five victories at Monza, so no certainty that this supposed trend will continue…