Few clubs embody ambition quite like Manchester City. They have won 18 trophies in nine years under Pep Guardiola but, for just the second time in his tenure, they finished last season without a trophy. Given that City had won the previous four Premier League titles, it was easy to downplay it as a mere stumble, a season disrupted by injuries and a cloud of legal issues.
They have responded by investing £320m in the squad in 2025 – including a staggering £180m in the January window, almost matching the rest of the Premier League’s combined spend – so the ambition for this season was clear. City were supposed to regain their aura of invincibility and win again. On the opening day of the new season, they looked every bit that side. Their 4-0 dismantling of Wolves felt like a warning sign. The message seemed clear: Guardiola’s six-time champions were back to their ruthless best.
But football moves quickly. Fast forward a fortnight and the mood could hardly be more different. A 2-0 loss at home to Spurs, followed by a 2-1 defeat at Brighton, has already upended the narrative. It has been a long time since a team won the title after losing two of their first three games. You have to go all the way back to the first season of the Premier League, in 1992-93, when Manchester United lifted the trophy despite taking just three points from their first three games. It is Guardiola’s lowest points tally at this stage of any league season. Is this simply a slow start, or does it point to deeper problems?
City started last season as clear favourites to win the title but Rodri’s cruciate knee ligament injury, sustained against Arsenal last September, kept the Ballon d’Or winner sidelined for most of the season and played a major role in the team’s struggles. They were unbeaten and top of the league when he suffered his injury. Without him, they lost nine of their remaining 33 games, their worst return since the 2015-16 season under Manuel Pellegrini.
Guardiola had already warned of Rodri’s importance, calling him “irreplaceable” and saying he would “play two of him if I could”. After the midfielder had stretched his unbeaten run to 55 games in February 2024, Guardiola was blunt: “With him, we are a better team. No doubt.” City’s slide last season proved him right.
A key part of Guardiola’s defensive style is controlling possession and anticipating danger. When City lose the ball, Guardiola expects his players to win it back quickly, preventing opponents from exploiting open space. When in possession, he employs “resting” football – holding possession in controlled sequences so the team can regain its shape and prepare for the next move. This ensures players remain in position and composed so, if the ball is lost, gaps are minimised and the team stays defensively secure when facing fast breaks.
Without Rodri’s control and near flawless passing, City were severely hampered. Their ability to rest with the ball suffered and they missed his ability to read the game, intercept passes and win second balls, which are all crucial for stopping fast breaks. The impact was clear in the numbers: in the six seasons before 2024-25, City conceded an average of 2.4 expected goals per season from fast breaks; last season that spiked to 8.1. Their off-the-ball runs dropped from third in the league in the 2023-24 season to 14th last season; possession won in the final third fell from first to seventh; and possession regained in the middle third slipped to 12th.
Despite spending almost £100m on Nico González and Tijjani Reijnders to restore order to the midfield, City have already dropped points due to familiar vulnerabilities. Although they dominated possession against Spurs and Brighton, their failed pressing from the front left the defence exposed. Brennan Johnson’s opener for Spurs and Brajan Gruda’s late winner for Brighton came from almost identical patterns. City allowed opponents too much time on the ball, enabling piercing passes down the channels, which pulled full-backs out of position, creating gaps for the fast-breaking attackers to exploit, leading to goals.
This season City sit ninth in the league for possession won in the final third and 13th for passes per defensive actionwhich measures how many passes an opponent completes before a team steps in with a defensive action. Unfortunately for City fans, it seems last season’s shortcomings have leaked into the new season.
It isn’t all doom and gloom though. Rodri made his first start in 11 months against Brighton and there were encouraging signs. The midfielder had more touches, completed passes and possession recoveries in the first half than any other City player. His influence waned after the 60-minute mark, but it will take time for him to return to full form.
After all, he has returned to a side that has lost Ederson, Manuel Akanji, Kyle Walker, Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gündogan, Jack Grealish and Julián Álvarez. New players need time to adapt and Guardiola has evolved his tactics, blending his possession-based philosophy with elements inspired by Jürgen Klopp, thanks to the arrival of the former Liverpool assistant manager, Pep Lijnders. Key changes include a more vertical and transitional style, intensified counter-pressing and faster attacks, all aimed at addressing last season’s vulnerabilities.
City are focusing on being quicker and more direct without losing control. When they win the ball, they try to attack immediately rather than circulating possession slowly. As Guardiola noted last season, teams such as Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool represent modern football, which is no longer purely positional – reflected in the steady year-on-year increase in average shots and goals from fast breaks per game from 0.98 in 2006–07 to 1.84 today.
Intensified counter-pressing ensures the team wins the ball back quickly after losing it, applying pressure high up the pitch, as we often saw in Klopp and Ljinders “heavy metal football”. You can expect to see the passes per defensive action statistic decrease for City as the season progresses. Faster attacks tie everything together: once possession is regained, players move forward swiftly, combining precise passing and off-ball runs to exploit gaps before opponents can reset defensively.
With so many personnel changes and tactical adjustments, it’s natural that City will be inconsistent early in the season. Building cohesion with new players, integrating Lijnders’ pressing principles and fine-tuning transitions will take time. However, if Rodri returns to his best and City can merge their traditional positional mastery with their new, more direct approach, then there is a lot to look forward to for City fans. But patience will be key.
This is an article by WhoScored
