In effect, on Wednesday (6), the 50% rates imposed by the United States on Brazilian imports. Even in the face of significant impacts on industry and national producers, the government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) follows as at the time of sanctions on Brazil: without any concrete action to deal with Donald Trump’s tariff.
The rates on Brazilian products correspond to more than double those applied to left -wing dictatorships and stately anti -American such as Venezuela and Nicaragua, with 15% and 18% respectively.
Despite Lula’s numerous bravado and provocations, daily meetings between national industry representatives and Vice -President and Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Geraldo Alckmin, and statements by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, the fact that companies will be affected by tariffs follow in the same condition as on July 9 – when Trump warned for the first time about the 50%taxation.
Tax lawyer Guilherme Peloso Araújo understands that, although the government has been trying to capitalize politically with this episode, all information is that the federal executive did little or nothing to avoid tariffs against Brazilian products.
“Although agent of the weak in this dispute, our president [Lula] It follows with its political and poorly effective manifestations, reaffirming facts and positions that do not contribute to our needs, “he said.
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Brazil did not submit relevant proposals for negotiation
According to US government spokesman, the Lula administration would not have sent relevant proposals to negotiate rates. Even in the face of the signage that the exploitation of rare lands, much targeted by the US, could enter the negotiation, the response of the petista government remains innocuous.
This Tuesday, for example, Haddad said Brazil can negotiate rare metals. However, it imposed the condition that negotiation not only aims at reducing tariffs, but also to raise US investment in the country.
USA has relieved rates to save domestic market
Luiz García, a member of the MDL Advogados Tax Group, says that the only relief for national companies came from the US government itself, which acted for the US domestic market interests by opening exceptions to the tariff.
He states that, in practice, the national productive sector continues to be with the impact of tariffs without internal measures to reduce the so -called “Brazil cost”, such as tax cuts or adjustment on public spending.
“Political discourse and innocuous actions only aggravate the loss of competitiveness and the risk of reducing markets, investments and jobs,” he says.
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Trump established almost 700 exceptions
In the decree in which he established the taxation entry into force for Wednesday (6), Trump listed almost 700 exceptions.
By the accounts of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, 65% of Brazilian exports escaped from the surcharge. Private estimates, however, indicate that the exception list includes 40% to 45% of Brazil’s sales agenda to the US.
Alckmin stated that the government must present a contingency plan in a matter of days. Among the expected measures are the possibility of government purchases and credit to companies.
Brazil wins when staying silent
José Augusto de Castro, director of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), says he has no expectation that the government launches the contingency plan in the coming days.
For him, the posture of listening a lot and talking little is the right one, as it is not known exactly what the United States is planning, considering that, on their own, Trump has determined several exceptions for the tariff.
Government slowness contrasts with speed of the impacts of the tariff
According to Flávio Molinari, partner of Collavini Borges Molinari Advogados, a possible action by the Brazilian government would be to question the requirement of these tariffs in the US, as there are precedents in this regard. The legal issue could be based on the fact that the US has surplus in the trade balance with Brazil.
The lack of practical measures of the Lula administration, however, contrasts with the speed of the impacts of Trump tariffs on the national economy.
The announcement of the tariff, on July 9, caused the reversal of foreign capital flow in B3, the Brazilian scholarship, making last month the worst July in four years, with net escape of $ 6.3 billion. The value is only lower than the R $ 8.25 billion negatives registered in July 2021, according to data from the consultancy Elos Ayta.
In minutes published on Tuesday (5), the Central Bank justified that it maintained the basic interest rate of 15%, among other reasons, cautiously regarding the impact of the tariff.
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Impact forecasts vary
After the publication of the decree in which Trump specified tariffs for Brazil, the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil (AMcham Brazil) estimated that Brazilian losses, already considered the exceptions to the 50%rate, would reach US $ 23.9 billion.
According to Bradesco estimates, which revised initial calculations of $ 15 billion on losses, the impact of 50% tariffs can be $ 9.4 billion – the bank except that simulations do not consider export redirect for new markets or exporting cost absorption.
The Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (FIESP) also reduced estimates of the impact of tariff from 0.35% to 0.20% of GDP this year. For 2026, the impacts were estimated at 0.38% of GDP, below 0.6% initially planned.
The strategies of companies in the face of tariff
Among the sectors directly affected by tariff, such as meat, firearms, among others, the strategies adopted vary. Some companies have already opted to reduce employee staff, with dismissal plans. Others stopped operations and set up collective vacations for their employees.
Some Brazilian companies that already act on American soil are already considering the complete migration of their activity to the US.
Study predicted flood of dismissals with tariff
Initial estimates of the Applied Economic and Environmental Modeling Center (Nemea), from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) – made before the announcement of the exceptions – showed that the tariff could result in up to 110,000 layoffs in the country, with 40,000 jobs in agriculture, 31 thousand in commerce and 26 thousand in industry.
Given the slowness of the federal government to present some solution, states such as Goiás, São Paulo and Minas Gerais have already developed contingency plans to assist the most affected companies.
