Strategy corner – Will title race hold McLaren back in F1 Hungarian GP?

Charles Leclerc’s shock Formula 1 pole position for the Hungarian Grand Prix has set up an intriguing battle at the Hungaroring as he aims to fend off the McLaren duo of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.

While the McLarens can be expected to be quicker over a race stint as rear tyre wear comes into play, Leclerc was actually in the same ballpark during Friday’s FP2 long runs, splitting long-run leader Piastri and Norris.

Hungary is a track-position race due to its lack of overtaking opportunities, but a variety of available strategy options and the threat of rain could add some intrigue to the 70-lap contest.

Leclerc holds solid cards, but strategy options are available

Speaking in favour of Leclerc is starting on the clean side of the grid, on new asphalt, while second-placed Piastri is starting from the lower-grip inside. At the start of Saturday’s F2 sprint race, second-placed McLaren junior Alex Dunne immediately fell into the clutches of third-place starter Arvid Lindblad, and if that is anything to go by then Piastri might become more concerned about keeping title rival Norris behind than having a go at Leclerc.

If Leclerc does hold the lead, passing the higher-top-speed Ferrari on track will be a challenge and a half, even for the McLarens. But Pirellis is predicting a variety of viable pitstop strategies that can help the Monegasque’s nearest chasers.

The quickest strategy in theory is a two-stopper on medium-hard-hard, closely followed by a one-stop on medium-hard. Even the soft tyre could come into play in Sunday’s cooler conditions for drivers wanting to be aggressive at the start before trying to undercut their rivals.

However, unlike Leclerc neither McLaren drivers has a second set of hew hards, which will force them to take a used set or pick a different strategy.

“For them there is the possibility to start with a one-stop strategy with the idea of a one-stop medium/hard,” said Pirelli chief Mario Isola.

“At the moment a one-stop is more or less 10 seconds slower with the level of degradation that we measured on Friday. If it is cooler and you are able to manage better the tyre, it could be less. That’s why I believe that two-stop is still the preferred choice.”

Hungarian GP: possible race strategies

Photo by: Pirelli

“If they decide to start with a two-stop strategy in mind, then soft-medium-hard is probably better, because you are quick at the beginning, you use the medium for the undercut that is very powerful here. And then you have the last stint on the hard. Nobody complained about warm-up but it depends on the conditions.”

But given Hungary is a track-position race, the slower one-stop might still be more viable as it will be possible to manage your second set of tyres until the end without risking losing positions.

Will McLaren be forced to be conservative?

Under normal circumstances McLaren could try both options. Use one car to undercut Leclerc early and go long with the other, making Ferrari choose which driver it can try and cover off, forcing the Scuderia into a lose-lose situation.

But these aren’t normal circumstances, as both Norris and Piastri are contesting the drivers’ title amongst themselves. McLaren has always vowed to give both drivers equal treatment, so neither will accept being on anything other than what they feel is the best strategy – with the caveat that the lead car in the race should have priority.

A similar scenario played out in April’s Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka, where both Norris and Piastri were stuck behind polesitter Max Verstappen and McLaren took a very conservative route, even pitting Norris on the same lap as Verstappen rather than splitting strategies.

“We’re both going to try and win the race. I think that’s our goal,” Piastri told Sky. “There are a lot of things where you can win or lose but I’m sure we’ll both be trying to win the race in our own right.

“Potentially [we need to be on different strategies], it depends on what our pace is like and where we end up after lap one. If you pit earlier, you can get the undercut but pay for that later in the stint. If you go later then you’ve got to try to overtake on track, so there’s pros and cons to both.”

Hungarian GP: available race sets

Photo by: Pirelli

The threat of rain

Another ingredient to add to the mix is the prospect of rain, with morning showers having already reset grip levels. MeteoFrance, the FIA’s weather provider, is pegging the chance of rain at 40% throughout the Budapest morning until the 15:00 local start time, after which the chances of showers will diminish. Shortly before midday, the track was all but dry thanks to 37 laps of running in the F2 feature race.

All bets are off if the rain does return, but while overtaking might potentially be easier in the wet and McLaren has looked mighty whenever intermediates are used, nailing the pitstop timing will be just as crucial.

Both Ferrari chief Fred Vasseur and Stella seemed to fancy their chances on Sunday. “We saw that we had a strong and consistent pace over a long run even compared to McLaren,” Vasseur said. “For the race, we must focus on ourselves, have a good strategy and the right approach for the tyres. If we do that, we can have a good one as our race pace is generally stronger than our quali pace.”

Stella added: “I’ve been saying to some of you already that Ferrari was in the game, Ferrari seemed to be competitive, but at the same time we are confident that we will have the pace to fight for the victory.”