In late July, three of the G7 countries, in an unprecedented wave, announced that they intend to recognize a Palestinian state.
The last to make the announcement was Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said on Wednesday (30) that his government will recognize a Palestinian state in September at the 80th United Nations General Assembly.
Before him, on Tuesday (29), the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Stmerer, had stated that his government will recognize a Palestinian state in September, if Israel did not solve what he called the “catastrophic situation” in the Gaza Strip, promote a ceasefire with the terrorist group Hamas and committed to the solution of two states in the region.
On the 24th, France President Emmanuel Macron said his country will recognize the Palestinian state at the next UN General Assembly.
Since the beginning of the current War in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, other countries have unilaterally recognized the Palestinian state, such as Spain, Ireland and Norway, but the fact that three G7 countries (the world’s most developed economies) express intention in this sense increases pressure on Israel.
However, from a political point of view, analysts believe that, despite this recognition, the creation of a Palestinian state will remain a distant possibility.
In an article published on Saturday (2) on the CNN website, international policy editor NIC Robertson highlighted some points. First, the proposals of Oslo’s agreements, signed in the 1990s, are no longer “realistic,” as Israel has been accelerating the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
The second point, related to the first, is that the current government of Israel, of Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, opposes the solution of two states, and the nationalist right parties of their coalition go beyond and preach that Palestinian territories be incorporated by the Israelis.
“Netanyahu has not shown the intention of retreating and will use everything that France, the United Kingdom and others impose it as a distinctive of honor,” wrote Robertson.
Last year, the Knesset, the Parliament of Israel, approved a resolution opposing the unilateral international recognition of a Palestinian state.
In July, the House approved another (non -binding) resolution in favor of the application of Israeli sovereignty over Judea, Samaria (Biblical Bible names of the West Bank, used by the politicians of Israel) and the Jordan Valley.
A third point is that the current US government, Israel’s main ally, also opposes the solution of two states and, as political science teacher Vincent Martigny said in an interview with the political site last year, “no one except the United States, has influence on Israel and direct access to Benjamin Netanyahu” – Americans account for almost 70% of Israeli weapons imports.
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As soon as he returned to the White House in January, Donald Trump removed sanctions from Biden management against Israeli settlers from the West Bank.
On Monday (28), by announcing that he would boycott a UN conference on the two-state solution, the Trump government reiterated Israel’s argument that such a discussion would be a “slap in the face of 7 October and a reward for terrorism.”
Another proof of the Total Opposition of Republican management to the idea is that the day after the announcement of Mark Carney, the United States raised from 25% to 35% the tariffs on imports in Canada.
Without American support, a Palestinian state has no way to become a member of the UN, as requests in this regard need to pass the Security Council, where the United States has veto power.
In an article for Atlantic Council, Daniel Shapiro, a member of the American Think Tank and former US-Basker in Israel, said the wave of recognition of the Palestinian state is “direct result from Israel’s inability to articulate any plausible plan for the next day [após a guerra] in Gaza ”.
However, this pressure will not lead to the realization of the idea of two states, wrote Shapiro. “European recognitions will not have an impact on the effective establishment of a Palestinian state. This can only occur through negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian authority,” he said.
