Lost Signs, Lost Agreement: How the commercial negotiations between India and USA failed

Trump announces 25% tariff about India products after five trading rounds, Indian authorities were so confident in obtaining a favorable deal with the US that they even nominated the press the possibility that tariffs were limited to 15%. The expectation in New Delhi was that US President Donald Trump himself announced the agreement weeks before the end of August 1 – which never occurred. 📱 Bake the G1 app to see real-time and free news now, Nova Delhi faces the unexpected 25% tariff on Indian products from Friday, added to penalties for another 25% due to the purchase of oil from Russia. Meanwhile, Trump closed more advantageous agreements with Japan and the European Union, and even offered better conditions to Archirrival Pakistan. Interviews with four US government officials and two US government have revealed unpublished details about the proposed agreement and offered an exclusive report of how negotiations broke, although there is already technical understanding of most points. According to authorities on both sides, a combination of political evaluation errors, poorly interpreted signs and resentment prevented the agreement between the largest and fifth economy in the world, whose bilateral trade exceeds $ 190 billion. The White House, the office of the US Commerce Representative, the Indian Prime Minister’s Office and the Foreign and Commerce Ministries did not respond to requests for comments sent by email. India believed that, after visits by the Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal, Washington, and US Vice President Jd Vance, the New Delhi, had made a series of concessions that would close the agreement. According to two Indian authorities heard by Reuters, New Delhi offered zero tariff on industrial products that responded for about 40% of US exports to the country. Despite the internal pressure, India was willing to gradually reduce US cars and alcohol fees through quotas and to meet Washington’s main demand: expanding imports of energy and US defense products, authorities. “Most of the differences were exceeded after the fifth round of negotiations in Washington, which raised the expectations of advancement,” said one of the authorities. She added that negotiators believed the US would understand Indian resistance to agricultural imports and tax -free dairy. But it was a calculation error: Trump saw the question otherwise and required more concessions. “There have been significant advances on several fronts in the negotiations with India, but we have never reached an agreement with which we were fully satisfied,” said a White House authority. “We never achieved a complete agreement – the kind of agreement we were looking for.” Excessive confidence Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was in Washington in February, pledged to seek an agreement until the 2025 fall (in the northern hemis) and to bend bilateral trade by reaching $ 500 billion. To reduce the $ 47 billion deficit in the trade of goods, India promised to acquire up to $ 25 billion in US energy and expands and expands Imports of defense products. Now authorities admit that India has become excessively confident after Trump mentioned a “great” imminent agreement, interpreting this as a sign that a favorable result was near. With this, New Delhi hardened his stance, especially in the themes related to agriculture and dairy products, sectors particularly sensitive to the Indian government. “We are one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and the US cannot ignore a 1.4 billion people market,” an Indian authority said in the negotiations in mid -July. Negotiators even filed a 10% average rate of 10% announced by the US in April, as well as the reversal of steel, aluminum and automobile tariffs. India later decreased expectations after the US closed business agreements with strategic partners, such as Japan and the European Union, and began to seek a 15%tariff similar to theirs, but with fewer concessions. This proposal was considered unacceptable by the White House. “Trump wanted an impact announcement, with greater market access, new investments and large purchases,” a source said in Washington near negotiations. An Indian authority admitted that New Delhi was not willing to match the offers made by other countries. South Korea, for example, signed an agreement shortly before the August 1 period established by Trump, obtaining a 15% rate instead of 25% by offering $ 350 billion in investments, expanding energy imports and granting advantages over rice and beef. Failure to communicate “at one point, both sides came very close to signing the deal,” said Mark Linscott, a former US commercial host and currently a member of a lobby group near negotiations between the two countries. “What was missing was a direct line of communication between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi.” An employee of the White House disagreed with this assessment strongly, noting that other agreements were completed without the need for this direct intervention. An Indian government authority who participated in the conversations said Modi avoided calling Trump for fear of a unilateral conversation that could put it in check. However, three other Indian authorities stated that Trump’s recurring comments about intermediating the conflict between India and Pakistan further hindered negotiations and influenced Modi’s decision not to make the final connection. “Trump’s comments about Pakistan were not well received,” said one of the authorities. “The ideal would have been to recognize the role of the US, but make it clear that the final decision was up to us.” A senior authority of the Indian government attributed failure to the lack of discernment, stating that the main advisers led the process inappropriately. “We lacked diplomatic support after the US signed more advantageous agreements with Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan and the European Union,” the authority said. “We are facing a crisis that could have been avoided.” Next Steps Negotiations continue, and a US delegation is expected in Delhi later this month. Indian government officials still believe it is possible to recover the agreement from that point. “It’s still possible,” said a White House employee. According to a fourth authority, the Indian government is reviewing points of the agricultural and dairy sectors in which it can give in. As for Russian oil, India could reduce part of purchases, prioritizing US suppliers if prices are equivalent. “This will probably require a direct conversation between the prime minister and the president,” Linscott said. “Take the phone. At the moment, we are in a scenario of loss to both sides. But there is still a real potential for an advantageous commercial agreement for all.”

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