Founding member of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), Iceland is the only country in the bloc that does not have Armed Forces, depending mainly on the United States, which uses the Nordic nation as a base and assists in defending the country. But this can change soon. The Coast Guard, which has been playing the country’s “military role” for decades, has complained of overloaded. “Three helicopters, two ships and an airplane are not enough,” an officer recently lamented in an interview with the British newspaper The Economist.
Nowadays, there are about 20 countries without permanent armed forces, such as Costa Rica, Iceland and Panama. Each has its own reasons, but the current scenario that Europe is going through, involving Russia and Ukraine, with its consequences for the rest of the continent, has led politicians and part of Icelandic society to rethink this position.
Amid the rearmament of European countries, justified by the Russian threat to the continent and the warnings of US President Donald Trump, for allied countries to invest in military defenses, the Nordic country – which spends only 0.2% of its defending GDP – makes sense of the pressure of Americans and allies. “They are pressuring us,” says Thorgedur Katrin Gunnarsdottir, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iceland.
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Americans use the country to monitor Russian submarines that infiltrate the Atlantic and this has caused Iceland to “outsource” its protection until then. Now, the country’s plans, with about 400,000 inhabitants, involve increasing defense spending, and may reach 1.5% of GDP.
This increase would enable the construction of a more solid infrastructure to assist American and European Ships, Submarines, and Airplanes that can use Iceland as a stop at the Atlantic War times.
However, this decision would leave the country vulnerable in other aspects. Iceland, an island of 103,000 km², is “connected” to the world through submarine cables, which play the role of transmission of international data traffic, voice and internet.
As the country does not have an intelligence service to hunt sabotagers and spies, one of the coast guard’s duties is to protect the cables from rebel attacks. An approximation with the United States and NATO, resulting in increased spending on military equipment, could make the country increasingly susceptible to Russian attacks and ultimately, Iceland could be isolated if its cables were cut.
Attacks to cables of this nature are not uncommon. In April this year, attacks on submarine cables, which threatened the internet network responsible for moving 95% of global data, were attributed to Kremlin.
One report released in March this year by the Think Tank American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) pointed out that Moscow used commercial, explosive, cybership, cutting instruments of submarine cables – as anchors – and even coordinated illegal immigrants to destabilize West borders.
The document points out that the number of “shadow” orchestrated attacks by Moscow in Europe almost tripled between 2023 and 2024, jumping from 12 to 34 incidents with physical impacts – such as explosions, fires and cuts to submarine cables (which serve to transfer digital data such as internet, telephony and private traffic). Most of the actions were conducted by the Russian Military Intelligence Service, the GRU, with the support of infiltrated local agents, contracted criminals and even foreign recruits that were trained on Russian soil.
If necessary today, the Iceland Coast Guard would also have ample difficulty in containing such offensive. Only recently did the country have started investing in unmanned submarines and anti -drug technology.
Creation of an Army
High -ranking members of Islandic defense, such as Arnor Sigurjonson, who was recently the country’s main defense officer, defend the formation of an army. He argues that it is childish to outsource the defense of the country and proposes the creation of an entity, which would initially be made up of 1,000 men to defend airports and ports in emergencies. This is because, for the official, the Icelandic infrastructure may be susceptible to Russian attacks. “They say we are few and too poor. This is just not true,” he says.
For the Island government, the “concept of security is no longer restricted to territorial defense,” but “encompasses the ability to deal with new challenges.” “Individual states will not, in themselves, prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, international crime, environmental degradation, financial security, cyber threats, trafficking in persons, the negative impact of climate change, poverty and misery, nor the threat represented by fragile states,” argues the Official Government websitewhich says prioritizing topics such as human rights, female empowerment and disarmament in their foreign policy.
If opinions like Sigurjonson’s have been a source of laughing out in the country, now they are growing more and more as a real possibility. Although the proposal for the creation of an army still brings skepticism to the Icelandic people, the need for the country to increase its expenses in defense, on the other hand, is already more unanimous.
Thorgedur, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iceland, is not positioned about the creation of an army, but cites examples such as Luxembourg and Malta that have a small force constituted. “I’m not afraid of this debate. The main question is: How do we defend Iceland?”
The concern also came to light after the threats of US President Donald Trump of attaching the relatively close Greenland. Although it is highly unlikely that Trump wishes to do the same with Iceland, the fact that almost all the Nordic country’s defense is in charge of the US should not be very pleasant to the Republican, which has reiterated his requests that European nations arise alone with such spending.
In addition to military issues, Iceland faces geological challenges that lack financial investment and external support. The country is located on the North American and Euro-Asian tectonic plates, which are in the process of removal, causing soil instability and resulting in volcanic activities. Some cities, like Grindavik, are at risk of exploding because of eruptions.
Icelanders fear that this can also become a political reality, rekindling the debate on adherence to the European Union – which for some would be vital in containing tragedies that have been happening. A referendum is planned to resume adhesion negotiations, and research points out that it will be approved.
The Icelanders, according to Pawel Bartoszek, a pro-European parliamentarian, are looking at Europe more than ever. The two people who are doing the most to convince them to join the EU, he says, are “Vladimir Putin and, in many ways, Donald Trump.”
