15 reasons for Brazil to be a threat to US national security

Brazil received the unprecedented classification of threat to national security of the United States. It was announced in an official memorandum released by the White House last Wednesday (3) and underlies President Donald Trump’s order to overlax Brazilian products by 50% on the Brazilian government’s arbitrary and tyrannical actions to coerce and censor US social networking companies, practice human rights abuse and make political persecution against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

For analysts heard by Gazeta do Povothe decision, however, reflects the fear of the US government that Brazil adopts the script that led to the Venezuelan dictatorship, justified by actions of Moraes incompatible with freedom of expression, human rights and the rule of law.

According to them, the risk to US national security is not only restricted to US companies and citizens and political persecution to Bolsonaro, but also from profound legal insecurity, the advancement of authoritarian governance supported by the alliance between executive and judiciary and hostile geopolitical positions.

Below is a list of government and STF actions that may be motivating the increase in American tariffs.

Facts associated with Brazil that may suggest a threat to US safety

1. Brazil has authorized the liaison of Iranian war ships Iris Makran and Iris Dena in Rio de Janeiro, despite US warnings about sanctions and suspected military technology transport (February 2023). The possibility was raised at the time that the ships would have come to seek enriched uranium in Brazil, but this was not proven.
2. Lula received Nicolás Maduro, with honors from head of state in Brasilia, generating internal and external criticism (May 2023) due to the attempt of the Brazilian government to legitimize the Venezuelan dictatorship.
3. Brazilian ministers participated in the St. Petersburg Forum alongside Russian dictators Vladimir Putin; Kim Jong-un, from North Korea; and Bashar al-Assad from Syria (June 2024).
4. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin attended the inauguration of Masoud Pezeshkian, who occupies the position of president of Iran, even after the country reaffirmed support to the terrorist group Hamas (July 2024).
5. Brazil supported a judicial process of South Africa at the International Court of Justice that condemns the Israel’s military forays in Gaza (2024).
6. Lula participated in a military event in Moscow alongside dictators and reinforced Brazil’s support to Russia. Brazil has been maintaining imports of fertilizers and diesel oil from Russia, contrary to Western sanctions and threats from the Trump government that the country will be punished if it continues with imports (May 2025).
7. In interviews, Lula compared the rise of right -wing governments, such as Trump’s, to the emergence of Nazism in the last century.
8. Brazil reintroduced the visa requirement for American tourists, alleging reciprocity (2022–2024).
9. In the domes of the BRICS (diplomatic bloc formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Iran) defended replacing the dollar as a global currency, generating Trump government reaction (2024).
10. Brazil leads the development of BRICSPay, an electronic payment offsetting system that also acts as an alternative to conducting dollar business transactions. Pix itself is seen as a tool that can compete locally with the Western banking system.
11. Agreements with China facilitated the entry of Chinese electric cars in Brazil, impairing the competitiveness of American companies (2024).
12. Lula requested Xi Jinping from China, cooperation to control social networks. Earlier, Alexandre de Moraes blocked Starlink’s platform X and frozen, causing a reaction from the US Congress (May 2025).
13. Brazil declined the American request to classify PCC and Red Command factions as terrorist organizations (May 2025).
14. The Brazilian government repeatedly criticized Israel’s military response to Hamas attacks, labeling Tel Aviv as Genocida (October 2023).
15. Lula called Trump a “emperor of the world” and threatened to retaliate the United States by increasing commercial tariffs.

Connection with Iran and STF interference in bilateral agreement worries the US

For Márcio Coimbra, president of the Monitor of Democracy Institute, the tariff does not reflect commercial interests, but the strategic assessment of risks from Brazil to US national security, represented by Brazilian court decisions and the country’s international alignment with actors considered hostile by the Americans.

The highlight given to Supreme Minister Alexandre de Moraes in Donald Trump’s decree reflects, according to Coimbra, the understanding that certain STF decisions impact US security architecture. The greatest example of this is the censorship imposed on American social networks, which were coerced by the STF to overthrow profiles considered “undemocratic”. The X’s suspension by decision of Moraes last year was also a factor that weighed in the decision. The United States understand that big techs may have financial losses with STF decisions.

The political scientist also points out as a Washington concern the growing presence Iranian companies in Brazil and the lack of strict safeguards. “Seen as a sponsor of terrorism, Iran has been going on commercial networks to circumvent sanctions and finance disturbing operations,” he says.

“Weakening judicial guarantees and permissiveness with high -risk partners have made Brazil a fragile link in Western security. Sanctions, therefore, [são] An attempt to induce the country to realign its foreign and legal policy with international standards of defense and technological control.

US commercial sanctions to the country aims at the risk of “Venezuealization”

The July 9 letter sent by Trump to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with criticism of the Supreme Court reactivated the debate on the “Venezuelization” of Brazil. Although scorned by many, the risk has advanced since 2023 with the judicial annulment of political prerogatives and decisions such as the overthrow of the X and the regulation of social networks.

Not only Trump, but also other influential leaders and newspapers abroad have manifested concern about the future of Brazilian democracy. In the US, parliamentarians had discussed sanctions since 2024. In Spain, the denial of an STF extradition request against journalist Oswaldo Eustáquio revealed that the highest Brazilian court is already seen with distrust abroad.

Also contributed to the American pressure of Lula’s proximity to authoritarian regimes – such as China, Russia, Iran and Venezuela – endorsing the sense of removal from western democratic values. Criticism multiplied, especially with Brazil’s engagement in controversial BRICS guidelines.

For analysts, Trump acted to inhibit Lula attempts and other Brics leaders to weaken the dollar as an international payment and preferred currency of trade and reserve. The most important goal, however, is to take Brazil and others emerging from the growing influence of China and Russia. On Wednesday, India, another member of the BRICS had its commercial tariffs with the US high to 50% due to the purchase of oil from Russia. Energy exports are used by Moscow to finance the invasion of Ukraine.

Authoritarian march in Brazil has accelerated, but still finds resistance

Although there are strong characteristics of authoritarianism in Brazil, the economic, political and social structure of the country still imposes difficulties on a full “Venezuelization”. Dependence on external investments and pressure from sectors such as agribusiness and financial market are locks that still prevent Brazil from becoming a classic dictatorial regime.

For political scientist Paulo Kramer, the “moderation” aired by Trump on the tariff – taking from the list about 700 items exported by Brazil to the US and focusing on magnitsky law sanctions against Moraes – was a chance to the country to revise its performance in the BRICS and its dependence of Beijing. In an interview with the CBS network, US commercial representative Jamieson Greer, said last week that Brazil could have been completely excluded from the western financial system.

In the Trump document, which cites Brazil’s “recent policies, practices and actions against the protection of US citizens and companies, inside and outside the US, there is a warning that Brazilian practices go against American policy to promote free and fair elections. Political analysts interpreted the phrase as a warning about the 2026 elections in Brazil.

Jair Bolsonaro is ineligible until 2030 by decision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), who condemned him for abuse of political power and misuse of the media. The court understood that he used the presidency’s structure to attack the electoral system during a meeting with ambassadors in 2022. The decision prevents him from competing for eight years from the 2022 election. Trump classified these decisions as a witch hunt.