A report by the US Department of Agriculture released earlier this year projected that the harvest of the 2024/25 Orange crop would fall to its lowest level in 88 years. Added to the internal crisis scenario, if the 50% rate of imported products from Brazil announced by President Donald Trump comes into force, from the fruit can shoot from $ 415 to $ 2,600 per ton – a 576% jump.
American orange production has been declining in recent years due to a combination of adverse factors. Pests, diseases, hurricanes and periods of low temperatures knocked down fruit inventories. This situation has increased US dependence on imports, with Brazil being one of the main suppliers.
Tariff Impact
The possible application of an additional rate of up to 50% on imports of Brazilian products, which should be valid from August 1, causes even more concern among orange traders. The surcharge can cause the price of fruit to shoot $ 415, the fixed import rate to US $ 2,600 per tonne, an increase of 576%.
Currently, the United States imports about 90% of the orange juice they consume, and Brazil accounts for approximately 80% of this total. Pressured, the country may choose to pay inflated prices or find new suppliers, such as Mexico and Colombia – with significantly lower production capacity than Brazil.
Effect in Brazil
In the national scenario, research from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea Esalq/USP) show that Brazilian industries have already suspended new contracts. The high degree of instability occurs amid a good crop in São Paulo and the Minas Gerais triangle: 314.6 million boxes to 2025/26, which represents a growth of 36.2% over the previous cycle.
According to the analysis of the Cepea team, in addition to orange juice, sectors such as coffee, beef and fresh fruits can be the most affected with the tariff. In addition to compromising traders’ revenues, inventory accumulation and pressure on internal quotes can generate unemployment.
Beatriz Hadler under the supervision of Thiago San.
