It’s a time-honored convention among NBA fans and analysts alike to jump to premature conclusions a week or so into free agency, and far be it from me to stray from tradition. So, here are the very early winners and losers of this season’s game of NBA musical chairs, thus far:
The winners
Atlanta Hawks
I’m old enough to remember when a Trae Young-led Hawks team made the Eastern Conference finals a few seasons ago. Since then, their drop from contender status has been steep: the Dejounte Murray experiment came and went, and trade chatter around Young only grew louder. But this season feels markedly different and that’s due in large part to a bangin’ offseason from Atlanta’s front office. They somehow convinced the New Orleans Pelicans to give up an unprotected first-round pick next year just to move up 10 measly spots in the draft (!! more on that later), and flipped inconsequential role players Terance Mann and Georges Niang for Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard. Almost overnight, they’ve become one of the deeper teams in the East. And they were already onto something last year, with No 1 overall pick Zacharie Risacher, Most Improved Player Dyson Daniels, and defensive spark plug Jalen Johnson, who’s returning from injury. This is the best shot Trae Young has ever had to make real noise in a weakened East.
Denver Nuggets
The Kroenkes, who own the Nuggets, could never be accused of being fast and loose with their cash. Just last week, Josh Kroenke raised eyebrows when he casually floated the idea of trading Best Player on Earth Nikola Jokić if the team’s tax bill got too steep.But credit where it’s due: Denver is having a terrific offseason. They offloaded the aging-like-milk-in-the-sun Michael Porter Jr contract (along with a 2032 unprotected first-round pick, a bridge they’ll cross when they get to it) in exchange for trade buzz magnet Cameron Johnson, a much better fit next to Jokić and one who earns roughly half as much. They also brought back Bruce Brown Jr on a veteran minimum deal, an absolute steal for a player they sorely missed during his journeyman stint around the league. A bizarre last-minute reversal from Jonas Valanciunas, who reportedly backed out of signing with Denver to return to Europe, caused a brief stir. But all told, the Nuggets have gone from “Are they really about to waste Jokić’s prime?” to “Bona fide contender” in a matter of days.
Houston Rockets
No one is having a better summer than the Rockets. After a commendable season that saw them emerge as the surprise No 2 seed in a stacked Western Conference, and without a true superstar, head coach Ime Udoka earned a well-deserved Coach of the Year nomination. They entered the offseason with a young, deep and exciting (but still flawed) roster, and a glaring need for a late-game shot-maker and offensive closer. Enter Kevin Durant. Houston landed the future Hall of Famer by giving up only the question-mark-laden Jalen Green, the mercurial Dillon Brooks and modest draft capital. They didn’t stop there. The Rockets retained Fred VanVleet, added backup center Clint Capela and quietly snagged 3-and-D wing Dorian Finney-Smith from the Lakers. Now they’re exactly where any team wants to be: deep, balanced and primed to take on the defending champion Thunder.
The losers
New Orleans Pelicans
Self-awareness is one of the most valuable skills in life, especially when running an NBA front office. The Pelicans, it appears, are in short supply. They opened the offseason by trading for Jordan Poole (?), then followed that head-scratcher with one of the most baffling draft-day moves in recent memory: trading their unprotected 2025 first-round pick to move up just 10 spots in this year’s draft (from No 23 to No 13 to be specific). For those keeping track at home: there is no reason to believe New Orleans will be even a play-in team in a loaded Western Conference next season, let alone reach the playoffs, and that pick they gave up could easily end up as the No 1 overall (especially if the injury bug continues to plague them). That means there’s a non-zero chance the Pelicans have just handed away the rights to generational prospect AJ Dybantsa … for the privilege of moving up 10 slots in a draft where they already had two first-rounders. Lunacy.
Milwaukee Bucks
Listen, we’ve all made desperate decisions in a haze of panic to keep someone from leaving. It’s fundamental to the human condition. But the extent to which the Bucks are wholly and fully cooked the moment 31-year-old Giannis Antetokounmpo demands a trade, an outcome that feels more inevitable by the day, cannot be overstated. When Damian Lillard and his $56m salary went down indefinitely with a ruptured achilles this spring, Milwaukee panicked and understandably so. But waiving and stretching Lillard means $22m in dead money … every year for the next five years. And they did this to create space for signing Myles Turner, who replaces departing veteran Brook Lopez. Turner is a solid starting center, sure, but hardly enough of a needle mover to lift the essentially identical roster of a first-round loser to championship glory, and certainly not one worth the nearly $50m Milwaukee will now be paying between his salary and the Lillard buyout. The instinct to panic is understandable. The results might prove catastrophic.
Lebron James and Luka Doncic
From a front-office perspective, the Lakers are riding high. The team just sold for a record-shattering $10bn to Dodgers controlling owner Mark Walter and, for now at least, they still have the crown jewel of one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history on their roster. But for said crown jewel, Luka Dončić, and his childhood idol turned teammate LeBron James, the outlooks isn’t quite so rosy. The company line out of Laker Land is that they’re prioritizing future flexibility over win-now moves, but that feels like a bit of a ridiculous conceit. For starters, when was the last time a true game-changer actually made it to free agency instead of signing the max and requesting a trade later? And LeBron, now 40 and coming off a season where he finished sixth in MVP voting and made the All-NBA second team, clearly doesn’t fit that long-term timeline. Even Dončić, at 26 and entering his prime, doesn’t have time to wait around. Yes, they technically addressed their glaring hole at center by adding Deandre Ayton on a buyout, and Jake LaRavia was a nice, low-cost pickup at forward. But after losing Dončić’s close friend and key contributor Dorian Finney-Smith in free agency, reportedly not on great terms, there are still serious holes in this roster. And little sign the front office feels any urgency to fill them. Dončić and James deserve better.
Honorable mention
Fans of the Indiana Pacers
From one game away from a championship and one of the most exciting young teams in the league to staring down the barrel of a year without Tyrese Haliburton and watching 10-year Pacers veteran Myles Turner walk in free agency due, allegedly, to Pacers’ ownership’s unwillingness to go into the luxury tax. It’s been a tough couple of weeks to be a Pacers fan, and they have my most sincere sympathies.
