It’s not just tariff: Deadly fly can also increase the price of beef in the USA

Price of beef in a supermarket in Mount Prospect (Illinois). AP/NAM Y. HUH BARBECUE IN THE UNITS IS EXPENSE AND THE SITUATION should not improve anytime soon. Meat prices in the country have been beating records. In June, for example, the average price of 450 grams of ground beef reached $ 6.12, an increase of almost 12% over last year, according to US government data. ➡️ But this is not recent. Meat prices have been constantly rising over the past 20 years because of a decrease in the American cattle herd, which reached its lowest level by 2025 in 74 years. And the rates that Donald Trump imposed large meat producers, such as Brazil, should further press inflation. 🪰 And that’s not all. The US government fears that a plague that has reached herds in Mexico to reach the US and endanger the country’s animals. It is the bicker’s fly, whose larvae feed on the living flesh of the oxen. Then understand: why the US cattle herd decreases; the risks of the bicker fly; impact of the tariff; Trends for prices. Smaller herd The US beef herd has continually decreased for decades. On January 1, the US had 86.7 million cattle, a 8% drop from the latest peak in 2019. This is the smallest since 1951, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The US beef industry has improved larger animals, allowing ranchers to produce the same amount of meat with less cattle heads, according to David Anderson, a Texas A&M livestock economist. Then, in 2020, a drought began that lasted three years, damaging pasture and raising the cost of the feed, according to the American Farm Bureau. The drought is still a problem in the west of the country since then, and the price of the feed has even pressed the ranchers, who already operate with small profit margins. In response, many farmers have shot down more females than usual, which helped maintain short -term meat supply, but reduced the size of future herds. The lowest cattle offer raised prices. In recent years, ox prices have fired. The latest quotes point out that oxen are being sold for $ 230 every 45 pounds. These higher values encourage ranchers to sell more females instead of keeping them for reproduction, as future prices may fall, according to Anderson. “For them, the dilemma is, ‘Seeing this animal now and pocket this record profit?’ Or ‘I keep her to generate return throughout her productive life, having calves?’ ”Said Anderson. “It’s a balance game, and so far the side you have won is the immediate sale.” How does Trump’s tariff impact Brazil beef exports? The Bosque Fly The emergence of a meat-devouring pest in Mexico herds further increased the pressure on supply, as the US suspended all imports of cattle from the neighboring country last year. About 4% of cattle slaughtered for meat in the US comes from Mexico. The parasite is the New World Bicker Fly. Females lay eggs in warm -blooded animals. The larvae that are born feed on alive meat and fluids, not dead matter, which is unusual between flies. American authorities fear that if this fly reaches Texas, its devouring larvae can cause huge economic damage, as decades ago, before eradication of the pest in the US. Farm Bureau’s agricultural economist Bernt Nelson said the loss of this cattle volume is further pressuring supply, contributing to the increase in prices. Trump’s tariffs The rates imposed by former President Donald Trump have not yet had a big impact on meat prices, but can become another rise factor, as the US imports about 1.8 million tons of beef per year. Much of this imported meat are thin cuts, used by refrigerators to mix with the fattest meat produced in the US, which gives rise to various types of ground beef that the American consumer wants. Most of these cuts come from Australia and New Zealand, which face a rate of only 10%. But another part comes from Brazil, where Trump threatened tariffs up to 50%. If these rates are kept for a long time, refrigerators will have to pay more expensive with imported meat – something difficult to replace with national production, as the US system is geared to producing fatter meat, ideal for marbled steaks. Prices should remain high price of beef in the US has been beating record. AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh Currently, the US is at the height of the barbecue season, which helps keep prices high, says agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor of Kansas State University. If the values continue this way, consumers will probably start buying more ground beef and fewer steaks. However, this still does not seem to be happening on a large scale – and there is no sign of migration to chicken or pig. Nelson said the drought recently decreased, which improved pasture conditions, and grain prices fell due to the fall in external corn demand because of tariffs. These factors, added to the high prices of cattle, can convince more ranchers to keep their cows and reproduce them to increase the size of the herds. Even though ranchers decide to increase their flock to compensate for imports, it would take at least two years to reproduce and raise animals. “There are still many barriers to increase this flock,” said Nelson. “Consider that a young farmer who wants to add 25 pregnant heifers to his herd needs to be prepared to spend more than $ 100,000 on auction – at a time when interest rates remain high.” Typically, meat prices fall with the end of the fall season in the fall, but this fall must be modest. Price of meat increased in the US because of a reduction in the cattle herd. AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh Tariffs Announced by Trump already harm meat, fish, honey, wood and others

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