Sources of intelligence services in the United States informed the Reuters Agency This week that Iranian military personnel carried naval mines in ships in the Persian Gulf after the attack began by Israel in Iran on the 13th, which raised Washington’s concern about a possible blockade of Ormuz Strait.
Even after Donald Trump’s announcement of a total ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tensions in the Middle East brought to light the threat of closing the strategic point where about 20% of world oil passes. Following the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, Iran’s Parliament approved the possibility of blocking the route, which generated international concern about the risks to the global oil flow and the world economy.
According to military analysts cited by The Guardian e The TelegraphIran has sufficient arsenal and technology to block the narrow in different ways. The most likely method would be the launch of Naval Minas – explosive devices that can be spread quickly through Iranian submarines, such as the Kilo Russian models and the Ghadir, of national manufacture. In addition, Iran could employ anti -viking missile batteries positioned along the coast, rapid armed speedboats and sea drones, making the crossing even more risky for cargo and oil ships, making it difficult to work on foreign marines that work in the region.
According to data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20% of the oil consumed worldwide – approximately 20 million barrels a day – goes through the Strait of Ormez, and a fifth of the liquefied natural gas trade.
The immediate impact would be a trigger on oil prices, pressuring global inflation. Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea depend strongly on the route, as well as Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran. The United States, although less dependent today, still imports about 7% of their gross oil via ormuz.
American authorities, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned that the close closure of the narrow would be an “economic suicide” to Iran himself, as it would damage his exports and mainly affect China, his largest buyer.
In Brazil, a possible closure of the Ormuz Strait would have immediate impact on fuel prices, as the oil marketed in the country follows international quotes. As Brazil adopts the import parity policy, increases in the value of the barrel in the global market quickly reflects on gasoline pumps, diesel and cooking gas, further pressing the inflation and the cost of living of Brazilians.
Over the years, Iran has threatened on different occasions to close the strategic route, but never made the decision in fact. According to the sources heard by ReutersThe loading of the mines may have been part of a stratagem of the Iranians to deceive Washington about Tehran’s intention to block Ormuz’s Strait.
