The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it’s keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged, citing elevated uncertainty over the nation’s economic outlook.
The decision to hold rates steady marks a continuation of the Fed’s “wait-and-see” strategy this year, as it monitors the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on consumer prices. But Wednesday’s policy statement also underscored that the growth remains steady despite concerns about slowing economic activity.
“Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year,” the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s rate-setting panel, said in its statement. “The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
Two voting FOMC members, governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, voted in favor of lowering the central bank’s short-term rate — a rare show of dissent at the Fed, where monetary policy is generally set by consensus. It is the first time since 1993 that two member of the Fed’s Board of Governors have voted against the chair, according to Capital Economics.
By the numbers
The central bank on Wednesday said it would maintain the federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The last time the central bank cut interest rates was in December 2024, when it trimmed rates by 0.25 percentage points.
Wall Street had anticipated the Fed’s decision, with economists pegging the probability the central bank would hold rates steady at 96%, according to financial data firm FactSet.
Why is the Fed holding rates steady?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the Fed remains cautious about ushering in lower rates given the potential impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs, which he has said he believes could hit economic growth and reignite inflation.
U.S. inflation still remains above the Fed’s goal of driving it down to a 2% annual rate, with the Consumer Price Index inching higher in June to reach 2.7% on an annualized basis. At the same time, the economy remains solid, with today’s GDP report showing stronger than expected second-quarter growth of 3%, providing more ammunition to back up the Fed’s argument for keeping rates steady, economists say.
“This [GDP] report is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s stance,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, in an email prior to the Fed’s decision. The central bank will “wait for more consistent signals before considering rate cuts.”
Economists currently predict a 63% likelihood the Fed will cut rates at its Sept. 17 meeting, according to FactSet. The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s rate-setting panel, doesn’t meet in August, making the September meeting the next chance for a rate cut.
