The clock is ticking closer to Donald Trump’s latest tariff deadline of 1 August, and while the president has been at pains to promote the agreements clinched with some major trading partners, many others are facing the prospect of no deal and increased levies on their exports to the Unites States.
Dozens more are caught somewhere in the middle – with no trade deal signed, but as yet no threat of higher tariffs. Among them are some of America’s closet allies and biggest trading partners, including Australia, Taiwan and New Zealand.
After market turmoil led Trump to twice postpone the implementation of the higher tariffs, the president insisted on Wednesday that the 1 August deadline “will not be extended” any further, promising it would be “a big day for America.”
However, Trump still faces a potential hurdle in the courts; hours before the new round of tariffs are due to come into effect on Friday, the US court of appeals for the federal circuit will hear arguments on whether the president even has the authority to impose the tariffs.
Threatened tariffs
For many of the countries without a deal facing the threat of crushing tariffs, the impasse appears to be rooted in politics as opposed to economics.
Brazil
Brazil is one of the few major economies with which the US runs a trade surplus – however earlier this month, Trump announced he would impose a 50% tariff on products sent from the country, tying the move to what he called a “witch-hunt” trial against its former president, Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has urged the US president to avoid creating a “lose-lose” relationship between two of the largest economies in the Americas and said he did not fear publicly criticising Trump, whom he recently called an “emperor”.
India
Trump announced the US would impose a 25% tariff on goods from India plus an extra “penalty” for the country buying arms and energy from Russia amid the war in Ukraine.
While saying that Delhi was a “friend,” Trump said the US had a “massive” trade deficit with India and linked its “vast” purchases of military equipment and energy from Russia to Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Mexico
Trump has threatened to impose a 30% tariff on Mexican goods, accusing the country of not doing enough to curb drug smuggling. Mexico is the largest trading partner of the US and president Claudia Sheinbaum has previously said she thought an agreement could be reached before the 1 August deadline.
Canada
Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has said tariff negotiations would probably not conclude by 1 August – but Trump has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on imports not covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
In March, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on cars and auto parts imported from Canada. In June he announced a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium imports. The new rate would apply to all other goods.
On Wednesday, Trump said that Canada’s decision to back statehood for Palestine would make it “hard for us to make a trade deal with them.”
China
US and Chinese negotiators have agreed to push back the deadline for escalating tariffs after talks this week failed to find a resolution across the many areas of dispute.
China has taken an aggressive stance in response to Trump’s threatened border taxes, retaliating with tariffs of its own on US goods and blocking the sale of vital rare earth metals and components used by American defence and hi-tech manufacturers.
Deals
So far the US has completed eight framework deals which promise tariffs lower than the levels threatened if no deal was reached, but considerably higher than the rates imposed before Trump’s second term began – meaning US consumers may face higher prices if companies pass the costs.
While details remain to be negotiated, many of the countries concerned have made considerable concessions to the US.
South Korea
Trump announced on Wednesday that the US would impose a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea – after negotiations that were an early test for South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, who took office in June after a snap election.
Trump said South Korea had agreed to invest $350bn in the United States in projects selected by the US and to purchase $100bn of liquefied natural gas and other energy products.
EU
A deal was reached on Sunday that includes a baseline US tariff of 15%, including to Europe’s crucial automobile sector, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. As part of the deal, the EU has agreed to purchase energy worth $750bn and make investments in the US, according to Trump.
France’s minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, said on Monday the agreement was “unbalanced” and Germany’s BDI business federation said the accord would have “considerable negative repercussions.”
Japan
Japan’s exports to the US will be taxed at 15%, including automobiles, an industry accounting for 30% of Japanese exports to the US in 2024.
Tariffs of 50% on Japanese steel and aluminium will continue to apply and the White House said that under the deal, Japan would make $550bn in investments in the US.
The Philippines
Products from the Philippines, a major exporter of hi-tech items and apparel, will face a 19% levy.
UK
British products will be subject to a 10% base rate, with exceptions for some industries. The UK is still negotiating exemptions for its steel and aluminium products from the 25% rate in force.
In return, the UK had to open its market further to US ethanol and beef, which has caused concern domestically.
Vietnam
Vietnam reached a deal in early July with the US, its main export market for products including clothing and shoes.
The deal will see its shipments subject to a 20% tariff, but a 40% tariff will be imposed on transshipments – goods manufactured in third countries that use Vietnam to circumvent steeper trade barriers. US goods will not face any tariffs entering Vietnam.
Indonesia
Indonesian exports to the US will be taxed at 19% and, according to Washington, nearly all US goods will be able to enter Indonesia tariff free.
Indonesia had already made other concessions earlier in July, pledging to buy more US oil and industrial goods.
Pakistan
Pakistan – facing a potential 29% tariff on exports to the US – said on Thursday it had struck a deal that would result in lower tariffs, as well as an agreement in which Washington would help develop the country’s oil reserves.
With Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press
