Many wonders why US President Donald Trump did not follow the attacks he authorized last weekend against Iran’s nuclear facilities and is not seeking the fall of the Ayatollah regime in the Asian country. This is because the Republican agent fears the “Gaddafi factor”, as well as the Iranian dictatorship – each according to their concerns.
Prior to Sunday bombing (22), White House sources heard from The New York Post had stated that Trump was more inclined to authorize only “limited attacks” to Iran – who actually turned out to be the president’s option – because he feared the fall of the supreme leader, Aiatola Ali Khamenei, could turn the Persian country “another libya”.
The reference is to the crisis that occurs in the country of North Africa since 2011, when an uprising from Arab spring and an intervention by NATO led to the fall and death of dictator Muammar Gaddafi. Since then, there have been two civil wars in Libya and the control of the country’s regions has been fragmented between rival groups.
One of the sources heard from the New York Post said Trump’s concern is that “someone worse than Khamenei” will take power in Iran and/or that there is prolonged instability similar to that in Libya.
“There are two reasons why Trump talks about Libya: the first is chaos after what we [Estados Unidos] We did it with Kadadi. The second is that the intervention in Libya has made it harder to negotiate agreements with countries like North Korea and Iran, ”the source said.
This is not the first time that Trump has manifested fear of the “gaddafi factor” in the Islamic world. In 2015, when he was a presidential candidate, he talked about it in an interview with CNN.
“I mean, see Libya. See Iraq. Iraq used to have no terrorists. [o ex-ditador Saddam Hussein] killed the terrorists immediately, and now [o Iraque] It looks like the Harvard of terrorism, ”said Trump.
“If you look at Iraq from years ago, I’m not saying that he [Hussein] He was a nice guy, he was a horrible guy, but [a situação] It was much better than it is now. Iraq is now a training field for terrorists. Now Libya, no one or recognizes Libya, frankly, there is no Iraq and there is no Libya. It’s all destroyed. They have no control. No one knows what is happening, ”he argued.
After the bombing to Iran on Sunday, Trump gave contradictory signs on the subject. After the attacks, Vice President JD Vance and the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, said the operation aimed to prevent Iranians from having a nuclear weapon and that the United States do not seek a change of government in the Asian country.
However, on the same day, Trump made a provocation on the Truth Social Network. “It is not politically correct to use the term ‘regime change’, but if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran big again, why would there be no change of regime?
The acronym Miga (“Make Iran Big again” is a reference to Trump’s electoral staff, Maga (“Make America Big again”).
Before the American offensive, Israeli award, Benjamin Netanyahu, had asked for a popular uprising in Iran to overthrow Khamenei, and Defense Minister Israel Katz said the supreme leader “can no longer be allowed to continue to exist.”
However, after the publication in the social Truth, Trump said that he does not want a change of regime in Iran. On Tuesday (24), when a ceasefire came into force between Israelis and Iranians, he said: “If it happened, but no, I don’t want to [uma mudança de regime]. I would like to see everything calm down as soon as possible. ”
“Changes of regimes generate chaos, and ideally we don’t want to see so much chaos,” he argued.
In Iran, the fear of the “factor of Gaddafi” has another origin: that the country be attacked again by the United States and Israel even if it gives up its nuclear program.
Muammar Gaddafi agreed to dismantle his mass destruction weapons development program, including nuclear in 2003, and was overthrown with the help of the West eight years later.
“The events of the last two weeks, I’m sure, have opened real debates within the revolutionary guard, among those who say,” listen, see the examples of Libya-Muammar Gaddafi Libya, Saddam Hussein, Ukraine, “said Karim Sadjadpour, Iranian-American political analyst on the International Peace for Peace for International Peace interview with NPR radio.
“These were countries that either gave up their nuclear option or could not get a nuclear weapon, and they all became vulnerable to external intervention, while the [ditadura da] North Korea managed to stay in power because there is this’ nuclear immunity cloak, ”he argued.
In an article, Matthew Chance, corresponding chief of global affairs at CNN, said that even if damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities were as significant as those reported by Trump and Netanyahu, more radical names within the Khamenei regime can become even more influential from now on and press for the search for nuclear weapons to be accelerated.
“For years, hard line voices within the Islamic Republic have been crying for a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against exactly this kind of overwhelming attack,” said Chance.
“Even if Iran continues to insist that its nuclear program has strictly peaceful purposes, these appeals will now inevitably have been reinforced and nuclear straw defenders may finally get what they want,” he warned.
