Why a South African F1 return still seems far-fetched

Last week, the Kyalami circuit in South Africa announced that its plans to upgrade to FIA Grade 1, required to host a Formula 1 grand prix, had been approved by the FIA. It was hailed as a “defining moment” and a big step towards F1 returning to the country – and with it the African continent – for the first time since 1993.

The approval gives the venue a three-year timeframe to conduct the necessary works needed to earn the coveted Grade 1 status, including tweaked run-off areas, barrier and fencing work and new kerbs, some of which will only be completed if Kyalami gets to host an F1 race again. Importantly, the changes don’t include any revisions to the 4.5km layout itself.

But on closer inspection, it seems as though the momentum behind South Africa isn’t gathering steam just yet and any potential race is at least several years away – if plans can ever truly get off the ground at all. For years South African politicians have expressed a desire to see F1 return, but no proper process to do so beyond wishing it into existence materialised. Now this process is finally in place, in the form of a bidding committee commissioned by the government, it has been a messy affair.

The government’s deadline to register an expression of interest was first delayed by two months until 18 March. Three bids came through – Kyalami and two Cape Town based bids – with a decision promised by the end of April on which bids would be entering a second phase, which is yet to be made public.

On social media, sports minister Gayton McKenzie hailed Kyalami’s privately funded upgrades as a “massive step towards bringing F1 to South Africa”, although a bid committee spokesperson then told local media “the above announcement and development is entirely independent from the work of the committee”.

It has now emerged that one of the three bidders, the Cape Town Grand Prix SA – which had plans for a street circuit around Cape Town’s Green Point district and DHL stadium – has already been disqualified after it questioned the sense of an opaque $10m Rand ($560,000) fee to submit an expression of interest.

“A flawed process can be detrimental,” Cape Town GP chief Igshaan Amlay told South Africa’s Daily News. “We still remain committed to the bidding process, and we’re open to engaging in a fair and transparent bidding model – one that encourages equitable participation and promotes long-term development within our region.”

Autosport understands F1 chiefs haven’t been particularly impressed by the bidding process. But the bigger question is exactly how a South African GP will be funded in a country that faces steep economic challenges – and a rising official unemployment rate of 32.9 percent – a funding question that can also be aimed at the continent’s other interested party, Rwanda.

The third African prospect, a proposed project outside the Moroccan port city of Tangiers spearheaded by former McLaren and Lotus team principal Eric Boullier, is still at an extremely early stage. 

Thailand still on pole for new F1 race 

The funding question is one that Thailand has answered, after the country’s cabinet approved a $1.2billion bid to host a street race in Bangkok from 2028. The bid is the end result of F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali’s travels to the Thai capital earlier this year to discuss what a grand prix should look like with prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. 

Out of all prospective F1 venues, Thailand has thus far appeared to be the most credible and diligent candidate with support at the highest level of government.  

The government-approved proposal is a 5.7-kilometre circuit running around Chatuchak Park and the adjacent train station, which would help make the event more sustainable. It would rely on a mixture of private and public funding, with the Thai government keen to boost tourism. Red Bull Thailand is also understood to be keen to make the project happen. 

Stefano Domenicali, F1 CEO, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Prime Minister of Thailand

Photo by: Formula 1

One early hurdle is the political crisis that has engulfed prime minister Shinawatra in recent weeks, following a leaked phone call with Cambodian leader Hun Sen about a long-running border dispute that has recently flared up again. But while Shinawatra battles to remain in power, the F1 project is understood to have widespread cross-party support and could survive even if the country’s leadership changes. 

Learning from India and Vietnam 

Shinawatra’s plight is relevant in the context of what it is that Formula 1 Management (FOM) wants to achieve by expanding its horizons. It is not short of suitors to earn a place on a capped 24-round calendar, so one of the biggest objectives of any new addition to the calendar is long-term stability and sustainability.  

“We cannot go to a new place without staying for a long time,” Domenicali told the media in Monaco. That strategy is behind long-term deals for Miami (2041), Australia (2037), Bahrain (2034) and Silverstone (2034). Most other races have also signed long-term extensions, with 16 out of 24 races tied up until at least 2030. 

Not only does it provide FOM with a more robust business platform, but it also hands promoters and governments a longer period to write off investments, improve their event and build date equity. 

The last thing F1 needs is to go to a new venue and see the event collapse within a few years, as was the case with the short-lived Indian and Korean grands prix. The Indian event at the Buddh International Circuit was mired in bureaucratic red tape and funding issues, while the Korean round near Mokpo also found itself in financial difficulties early into its four-race stint. 

More recently, a proposed race in Vietnam’s capital Hanoi was removed from the calendar after the $600m track had already largely been built, due to the consequences of the global pandemic and corruption charges against the political leader supporting the event. The unused track still exists, and is starting to be reclaimed by nature. 

Aerial photo of the abandoned F1 track in Hanoi

Photo by: Nhac Nguyen – AFP – Getty Images

Those painful lessons further illustrate the need for widespread financial and political support, and show why FOM will not take chances on South Africa or other hopefuls without due process and firm long-term guarantees. 

Speaking to Autosport earlier this year about the prospect of an African grand prix, Domenicali said: “Before taking that step, we need guarantees on three fronts: investment that benefits the community beyond F1’s presence, infrastructure (not just a circuit, but hotels, roads, airports), and an economic base that can support the event long-term. We’re not on standby – we’re working to assess what’s still missing before we can say, ‘Okay, let’s go.’ But we’re not there yet.” 

What about 2027? 

What has now become abundantly clear is that there won’t be any new, exotic additions to the calendar before 2028 at the earliest, and that FOM seems in no rush to make a decision. 

That does leave it with a short-term hole in 2027, when Zandvoort’s Dutch Grand Prix will have disappeared from the calendar. Other races with expiring contracts include Barcelona, Austin and Baku, although it is expected the latter two will be renewed. 

The available slots could yet provide a lifeline to Barcelona or even Imola to remain on the calendar, most likely as part of a rotation with Belgium. It is understood talks are also ongoing in Turkey to bring back F1 to Istanbul Park, which last hosted a grand prix in 2021.