The ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Iran announced by US President Donald Trump on Monday night is increasingly fragile at the exchange of accusations and threats between the two countries involved in the agreement.
Shortly after the truce allegedly came into force at dawn on Tuesday (24), the Israeli army reported the detection of a new Iran’s missile release against the national territory, which fired alarms in the north of the country. On the other hand, the Army of Iran stated that Israel launched three missile waves after the start of the ceasefire announced by Trump.
Despite the initial instability, a ceasefire between countries can bring benefits to both sides strategies.
Israel
By accepting the White House leader’s proposal on Monday, the Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said it has reached its goals in 12 days of war, although it warned that it will be “firmly” to any violation of this agreement.
Through a statement, Netanyahu’s office reported that he met with Defense Minister Israel Katz, the Chief of Staff and the Mossad Chief, to inform them that Israel had reached all the objectives of the “Operation Rise”, which began at dawn on June 13, when the Israeli Air Force bombed nuclear and nuclear targets on Iran.
“Israel has eliminated an immediate existential double threat, both in the nuclear field and in ballistic missiles,” says the statement, detailing how the Israeli army reached the “total” air control of the heavens of Tehran, and inflicted “serious damage to the Iranian military and government summit.
With this, Israel stated that he reached historical achievements and put himself “on an equal footing with world powers”, expanding his influence in the Middle East.
“In Operation Lion on the rise, the State of Israel has achieved great historical achievements and placed itself on an equal footing with the world powers. This is a great success for the people of Israel and its combatants, who eliminated the two existential threats to our state and guaranteed the eternity of Israel.”
During the operations, which were attended by the United States, Israel was able to weaken the Ayatollah regime with the elimination of much of the military circle near the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and scientists involved with the Iran’s secret nuclear program, considered an existential threat to the Israeli state. In addition, there were no Israeli and American military losses during the bombing.
Iran
On the other hand, the Khamenei regime, despite maintaining the straw line posture against Washington and Tel Aviv, seems to seek a way out of the conflict in the face of numerous losses.
On Monday, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council gathered extraordinaryly to discuss how they would respond to US attack over the weekend against three essential tehran nuclear facilities. The Supreme Leader ordered the release of missiles against US military basis in the region, as it did not impact the White House and was seen as a sign of weakness of the regime.
Sources familiar with the subject explained to the The New York Times That Iran’s action was contained, as the country wanted to avoid new American bombing in its territory. The main target of the attack was Al Udeid’s Air Base in Qatar, an ally of Tehran in the region, another reason for a more restrained reaction.
However, although Israeli and American operations showed a higher degree of force, it is still unclear whether recent attacks have frustrated Iran’s uranium enrichment program and its ability to build nuclear weapons, which is why a ceasefire can give time to the Ayatollah regime to reorganize.
US authorities say in the days following the attack that bombing caused “serious damage” to Iranian nuclear facilities, especially in Fordow, where Iran enriches uranium and only one system from the United States could cause damage. As the place is underground, it is not possible to make an exact assessment of what happened in the installation.
In addition, Iran claimed to have built a new uranium enrichment center “in a safe place without vulnerabilities.” The new installation is possibly under a mountain, similar to Fordow. According to TimesIf it is already working with more modern centrifuges, it may enrich uranium for nuclear weapons within a few months.
The current stock of uranium enriched in Tehran has not been located by Americans and Israel so far. Iranian authorities reported that they managed to transfer him to a “safe place” before the US attack. Iran is estimated to have about 400 pounds of 60% purity enriched uranium, close to 90% required for nuclear weapons production.
As a result, Iran will militarily weakened from the conflict, but it can gain time and plan the future of its nuclear program, used as a strategic dissuasion against countries considered enemies of the Aiatolos regime. In addition, the Persian country must plan other ways to reach its targets without necessarily opening a new direct conflict front.
