The key factors that decided the outcome of MotoGP’s Italian GP

While the Italian Grand Prix failed to deliver the expected challenge from Francesco Bagnaia that was anticipated, the weekend at Mugello still threw up plenty of talking points across the grid. 

Here are the key factors that determined how the riders stacked up once the chequered flag flew in Mugello. 

Riding a Ducati 

If you weren’t riding a Ducati, you weren’t in the race. It was as simple as that at Mugello. While it could be said that this statement has been true for the entire 2025 MotoGP season, the Italian Grand Prix seemed to underline the point. Marc Marquez may have taken a superb victory, but nearly all the Ducati’s were up at the sharp end of the grid. 

There was hope on Friday that the KTMs would be able to slot themselves into the mix in the battle for victory, but it was still an all-Ducati front row at Mugello after qualifying. The KTMs appear to like the low grip conditions such as those present at Mugello, and the straightline speed of the orange bikes helped as well. But, Ducati still reigned supreme when it counted in qualifying. 

Really, the only disrupter was Maverick Vinales, with his Tech3 KTM, who finished fourth in the sprint. Chances are he could have been the one to knock Bagnaia off the podium in the main race had Franco Morbidelli not barged the KTM rider into the gravel trap, but this is ultimately just speculation.

The reality is that the top four positions in the main race were filled out by Ducati riders. Marco Bezzecchi, who finished fifth on his Aprilia, called the Ducatis “perfect” as he said that the bikes in front of him just had that little bit more performance. 

It has been shown time and time again that while the other manufacturers can have a shot at victory when the conditions are just right, the Ducatis have a much broader performance window that has allowed them to dominate proceedings so far in 2025.  

Temperature sensitivity 

The Italian Grand Prix weekend was a hot one and Friday was particularly scorching. The ambient temperature was regularly above 30C with track temps hovering around the 50C mark. Hence the track conditions leaned towards the low grip side much like during the Aragon Grand Prix two weeks ago – but that was more down to the track surface rather than just the temperature. 

The Hondas in particular struggled badly, losing time in the last sector. Honda ended up turning the Mugello weekend into a prolonged test session as it tried to gain some pace. Joan Mir admitted after the main race on Sunday that he was running different set-ups across all the sessions, even going as far as swapping out swingarms – an unusual task in the middle of a race weekend. 

The best that Honda came away with was 11th for Mir in Sunday’s race, while LCR had a complete disaster with Johann Zarco not scoring points in either race due to crashes. The French Grand Prix winner was as uncompetitive as the factory team riders, so it hardly mattered anyway. 

Yamaha, meanwhile, had an equally torrid time with excessive chatter caused by the conditions leaving the Japanese bikes off the pace as well. Despite his heavy crash during Friday practice, which caused a dislocated shoulder and a trip to the hospital for examination, Fabio Quartararo put in a brilliant qualifying effort to line up fourth on the grid – just two and a half tenths off Marc Marquez. The other Yamaha riders weren’t as competitive and Alex Rins was the next best-placed Yamaha in ninth. 

In the sprint, Quartararo tumbled down the order with excessive chatter to join the other Yamahas out of the points. It was the same problem in the main race where Quartararo finished 14th and sandwiched by the other remaining Yamahas. Jack Miller retired from the race early with clutch problems. 

And another poor showing from the two Japanese manufacturers

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Quartararo labelled the bike “a real disaster,” particularly on the direction change and explained that this year’s YZR-M1 has a very narrow operating window. Honda and Yamaha simply couldn’t deal with the conditions, which hurt them badly – just like in Aragon.  

Front-end confidence 

Confidence with the front of the bike was a key deciding factor at Mugello with one rider in particular demonstrating its importance. Please step forward Mr Bagnaia. 

During the Thursday media interviews, Pecco stated that “if I will not be competitive here, we can say there’s a problem”. Bagnaia had won the three previous instalments of the Italian Grand Prix so you could see why he held such as strong view. 

He ran with the 340mm disc at Mugello rather than the 355mm disc he had fitted at Aragon as this offered a short-term fix for his troubles. It proved to be unsuitable for Mugello, though, where the braking requirements are lower. Brembo’s Andrea Pellegrini explained the set-up used at Aragon and why Bagnaia switched on Friday.  

“Basically Pecco [Bagnaia] started [at Aragon] with his standard configuration: the 340mm high mass disc,” said Pellegrini. “Because the category of energy at Aragon is high so, for this reason he started with the standard solution and, during the warm-up, he moved to a 355mm. 

“This track [Mugello] is light in terms of energy on the brakes compared to Aragon, but he is using a 340mm standard mass now and if he moves to a 355mm it puts a lot of weight not only the weight of the different disc but you also have to put some sort of cover in order to warm up the temperature immediately.” 

Front-end feel continues to prevent Bagnaia from taking the fight to both Marquez brothers

Photo by: Tiziana Fabi / AFP via Getty Images

So, front-end confidence was key but the brake disc solution from Aragon clearly wasn’t the cure-all that Bagnaia hoped it would be. He finished the main race off the podium, saying that it was “impossible” to think about winning the championship. 

It wasn’t just Bagnaia, the KTMs were also trying to boost their confidence with the front of the bike, and factory rider Pedro Acosta was the only KTM rider in the main race to fit the hard front tyre. It didn’t really work out for him in the end, and he finished the race eighth and just in front of his team-mate Brad Binder who had fitted the medium tyre up front. Vinales showed better pace than the pair of them and used the medium front tyre before he was pushed out of the race. 

It’s clear, however, that the KTMs – unlike the Honda and Yamaha bikes – enjoy the low grip conditions. At Aragon, the track surface brought a resurgence in form, while Mugello’s high track temperature allowed KTM to be firmly in the mix – albeit not quite close enough.  

The KTM riders have said that one of the things they lack, aside from traction, is confidence under turn-in conditions and it was in evidence in Mugello again. They were running all sorts of different configurations during practice across the bikes. Some of the KTMs had rear winglets, others didn’t, and the mass damper was mounted on some of the orange bikes but not on the others. It was impossible to keep track of who was running what throughout the weekend and just proved, yet again, how important the front end of the bike was at Mugello, and how desperate some of the teams were to improve it. 

KTM exhausted all options looking to unlock pace to take the fight to Ducati

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images