Almost a quarter of the Canadian province of Manitoba province in western Canada would vote in favor of separating the rest of the country in an independence referendum, according to a survey released on Monday (30) that intensifies the Canada national unity crisis.
The survey, conducted by Probe Research with a thousand interviewees and a margin of error of 3.1%, indicates that although a vast majority (up to 70%) would vote to stay in Canada, 22%would choose to separate.
The survey also found that support for separation is concentrated in rural areas and among conservatives.
The results point to a similar trend in three of the four provinces of the Canadian West (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba), where the separatist feeling has gained strength in recent years among conservatives in the face of growing dissatisfaction with the policies of the central government, led by progressives.
This discontent intensified after the victory of Progressive Liberal Party of Prime Minister Mark Meatary in the general elections of April 28, for the frustration of conservatives, who have been out of power since 2015.
Alberta, one of the richest provinces in the country due to its vast oil reserves, is the epicenter of the movement, which plans a separatist referendum in 2026.
A survey conducted in late May indicated that 30% of Alberta’s population is in favor of Independence, an increase of four points compared to 2021. Alberta is currently the province of Canada with greater support to the separatist ideal, more than Quebec, which held independence referendums in 1980 and 1995.
Alberta, who in 2023 he produced 4.3 million barrels of oil (84% of Canada’s total and more than Iran and Iraq), accuses the federal government to sacrifice their prosperity in favor of Ontario and Quebec provinces.
Alberta’s separatist movement plans to make a referendum in 2026. In May, the referendum question was presented: “Do you agree that the province must become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?”
The impetus for the movement came after Alberta’s head of government, conservative Danielle Smith, decided to reduce the demands for a referendum and announced that she would not oppose the initiative.
Prior to the election of April 28, Smith expressed his rejection of a possible victory of the Liberal Party and justified the country’s western frustration with Carry’s victory.
Eye Trump
The strengthening of separatist movements in Canada occurs under the eyes of US President Donald Trump, who repeatedly since returning to the White House suggested that Canada “would be welcome as the 51st state” of the United States.
