Even with the escalation of tension in the Middle East, the price of oil surprised the market by falling more than 5% after the Iranian attack on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The expectation was high in prices in the face of conflict, but the reaction of the financial market was cautious, signaling that investors await more concrete developments before readjusting their bets.
Commodity decline occurs days after the United States bombard three Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran’s response rekindled alerts about a possible global energy crisis. However, according to experts, there are still no clear signs of a military climb that directly affects the global oil offer – which helps to contain prices for now.
Professor Ildo Sauer, power holder at the University of São Paulo Institute of Energy and Environment, explains that the current world oil production is at a level higher than the expected demand, which helps to hold prices. He recalls that OPEC+ countries have been keeping agreements to expand production, which also contributes to this momentary stability.
Leonardo Santana, partner of Top Gain Analysis House, evaluates that the market is more mature and resistant to impulsive reactions. According to him, the most rational behavior is due to the fact that, despite the threats, there has not yet been a concrete aggravation of the war that justifies a leap in the price of the barrel. “The market wants predictability, and for now there is no signs of real climbing,” he said.
In Brazil, the drop in oil price can have mixed effects. Being a major exporter of Commodity, the country tends to lose revenue from low prices. On the other hand, as well as large volume of derivatives – due to the limitation of the refining park – a retraction in international prices can relieve internal inflationary pressures, especially in fuels.
In addition, the dollar price remains stable in the country, which also helps to contain possible negative impacts. The entry of foreign capital, attracted by high interest rates in Brazil, has maintained the relatively valued real. This softens the effects of exchange on imported items, such as fuels and fertilizers, which directly influence the cost of living of the Brazilian consumer.
Still, the risk of a aggravation in the conflict persists. The Iranian Parliament approved the possibility of blocking the Strait of Ormuz – a route where about 20% of all world oil passes. The measure still needs to be validated by the country’s Supreme National Security Council, but the simple threat already causes apprehension between analysts.
If effective, Ormuz Strait block could cause a rupture on global oil supply, with a direct impact on prices. The discharge in transportation costs, coupled with the restriction of supply, could quickly reverse the drop -down scenario, affecting both importing countries and exporting countries such as Brazil. For now, the market is waiting. But any concrete movement in the region can radically change the course of the oil curve.
