In the June inflation preview, Café Mido was the second item that weighed the most in the month, after electricity, according to data from the Ample-15 Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15) released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), on Thursday (26).
In the field, the average monthly quotation of Arabica coffee-the most consumed and produced in Brazil-fell 17% in June compared to February, when the price broke record in the historical series of the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA-ESALQ/USP).
The tendency is that the drop in field prices begin to reach consumers in the second semester, but slowly and gradually, gaining intensity in 2026 – a year for a greater growth in Brazil’s crop.
For the consumer, the price of coffee rose 2.86% compared to May. From 12 months to June, the product faced 81.6%. However, according to IBGE, coffee inflation has been decreasing the rhythm since March.
Producer quotes began to retreat after the beginning of the harvest in Brazil and with the expectation of an improvement in the crop of Southeast Asia countries, such as Vietnam and Indonesia. The low is also pulled by a reduction in coffee consumption.
According to the National Supply Company (Conab), the drop in quotations is influenced by the forecast of 28% growth in the current robust coffee crop. Regarding the previous cycle, arabic coffee production should fall 6.6% due to droughts.
